Its way to early for ranking 16-20
20. NC State Wolfpack
2023 record: 9-4, 6-2 ACC. Lost to Kansas State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Losses: LB Payton Wilson, LB Jaylon Scott, CB Shyheim Battle, CB Aydan White, TE Trent Pennix, QB Brennan Armstrong, OT Anthony Belton, C Dylan McMahon.
My slightly biased thoughts: NC State's offense was an anomaly. Brennan Armstrong transferred from Virginia entering the 2023 season. He led the Wolfpack in rushing yards with a modest 665 yards. Remember, he is a quarterback. In fact, the Wolfpack's top two rushing leaders were not running backs. Armstrong led the team, and wide receiver Kevin Concepcion was second with 320 yards on the ground. Armstrong struggled through the first five games, throwing for 971 yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions. MJ Morris took over for Armstrong after the Wolfpack lost to Louisville. Somehow, NC State almost won 10 games. MJ has since moved on to Maryland, and Armstrong was a one-and-done transfer. Coastal Carolina quarterback transfer Grayson McCall is set to take over the position and hopefully help NC State become slightly more proficient offensively. The 25th-ranked defense from the 2023 season will be losing its top two leaders in tackles, linebackers Payton Wilson and Jaylon Scott, but will get back safety Sean Brown. Even with Brown's return, there are some holes to fill on the defense. North Carolina State enters the 2024 season with the 30th ranked recruiting class and the 7th ranked transfer class.
2024 Outlook: With a second-week matchup against Tennessee at home, NC State faces a challenge almost out of the gate. Away games against Clemson, Cal, and in-state rival North Carolina are significant; I mention Cal simply because the 'Pack must travel across the country mid-season after playing six straight games. At home, they face few challenges, perhaps except for Duke and Syracuse, both of which have first-year head coaches at the helm. Duke's Manny Diaz is not in his first year as a head coach after two seasons in charge of Miami, but this will be his first year at Duke. For Syracuse, Fran Brown takes the helm. Northern Illinois, which NC State faces at home, could be a challenge. The Huskies finally figured out their offensive struggles mid-season but will be replacing their starting quarterback.
Prediction: 9-4 (Losses to Tennessee, Clemson, Cal, and North Carolina). Not playoff-bound.
19. Clemson Tigers
2023 record: 9-4, 4-4 ACC. Beat Kentucky in the Gator Bowl.
Losses: RB Will Shipley, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr., CB Nate Wiggins, DT Tyler Davis, DT Ruke Orhorhoro, WR Beaux Collins, S Andrew Mukuba, DE Xavier Thomas, C Will Putnam.
My slightly biased thoughts: When does getting kicked in the butt while your head is buried in the sand turn into a positive? Dabo might be finding that out sooner rather than later after facing backlash from fans last season following two consecutive losses for the first time since 2011. Fans in Clemson have begun to grumble. Dabo can still recruit great high school players but refuses to move along with the times by embracing the transfer portal and NIL. Dabo does not seem to be against NIL, as he was seen in the South Carolina state capital building pushing for a new NIL bill to be passed, but he has been steadfast in not conforming to the transfer portal. Clemson has not received a single incoming transfer during the first transfer window. This could change around April when the next window opens. For most programs, a 9-win season is good, but for Clemson, it is subpar for a team that has won double digits in games every season since 2011. Four losses to conference opponents, with back-to-back losses to Miami and NC State, had Dabo hearing it from fans on his weekly radio show. The tale of the tape: In this corner, we have Dabo Swinney, an 8-time ACC champion and two-time National Champion. In the other corner, we have Tyler from Spartanburg, a passionate nobody hailing from a place where Denny's is the 8th largest employer behind Wofford College and the City of Spartanburg. Dabo's response shows that the recent criticism may have gotten under his skin. Then again, the Tigers did rip off 5 straight wins to finish the season, beating Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Kentucky.
Will Shipley is off to the draft, but the Tigers' leading rusher, Phil Mafah, announced his return for his senior season. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has shown improvement as the 2023 season progressed, but the offense was still not blowing past teams, ending the season as the 52nd best offense in the country. That was with Shipley, who was second on the team in rushing and sixth in receiving. Leading receiver Tyler Brown is back, but the Tigers' second in receiving, Beaux Collins, transferred to Notre Dame. None of the current or former players really set the stat sheet on fire last season. Clemson did not have a 1000-yard rusher or receiver. Only Mafah had double-digit touchdowns, with 13. Klubnik had 2,800 yards through the air with 19 touchdowns when the offensive line could keep him upright. The Tigers gave up 29 sacks last season, ranking 82nd in sacks allowed. To compare, Oregon was 1st, allowing only 5 sacks.
The strength of the Clemson squad was the defense, which ended the season with the 32nd best defense. Leading tackler linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Jr. is off to the draft. Safety Andrew Mukuba, who was third on the team in tackles, transferred to Texas. Safety Khalil Barnes returns after his freshman season and led the Tigers in interceptions last season, which will help the secondary. Senior linebacker and 2nd on the team in tackles Barrett Carter, along with sack leader freshman TJ Parker, are back for 2024.
Clemson enters the 2024 season with the 14th best recruiting class and the 65th best transfer class, with no incoming transfers and 10 transfers leaving.
2024 Outlook: Right off the bat, Clemson faces Georgia in Atlanta. 20 days later, they square off at home against NC State, who was the last team to have beaten the Tigers. Notre Dame is not on the schedule this season, but they do have road games against Florida State and Virginia Tech, both challenges in themselves if Virginia Tech can continue to trend in the right direction, and if Florida State continues to build off last season's 13-1 record.
The Tigers do get Louisville and South Carolina at home, with both teams being unknowns. Duke and Miami, both teams who beat the Tigers last season, are not on the schedule.
The Tigers started slow last season, going 4-4 until Dabo started feeling the heat from fans and then ripped off five straight wins to finish the season. With young talent and a handful of upperclassmen returning, Clemson could seem like a team that can make a late run if they can get past the first part of their schedule.
Prediction: 10-2 (Losses to Georgia and Florida State). Playoff-bound if they can win the ACC championship.
Oklahoma State Quarterback Alan Bowman. Credit: The Oklahoman
18. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2023 record: 10-4, 7-2 Big 12. Lost to Texas in the Big 12 championship. Beat Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl.
Losses: LB Xavier Benson, DE Anthony Goodlow, TE Josiah Johnson, WR Leon Johnson III, DE Nathan Latu, WR Jaden Bray.
My slightly biased thoughts: Rooting for Oklahoma State is kind of like being in a marriage where you love the other person, but you know you're going to get in trouble for something you didn’t know was against the rules. Starting the 2023 season 2-0, with no real reason not to be 3-0 going into Ames to face Iowa State, it all came crumbling down with the embarrassing 33-7 loss to South Alabama. High hopes and an offshot chance of making the playoffs disappeared in 60 minutes. The Cowboys' offense barely broke 200 total yards in the game, with Gunnar Gundy, Mike Gundy's son, leading the passing attack with 64 yards. Gunnar eventually transferred to Ohio this past portal window. Maybe the Cowboys were looking ahead to Iowa State, who they played in Ames the following week, but that did not pan out as the Cyclones beat the Pokes 34-27. However, the Pokes did actually gain over 400 yards in this game.
Coach Gundy and the Pokes took the bye week and recovered, heading into a Friday Night game against Kansas State where they beat the Wildcats, starting a five-game win streak with victories over 23rd ranked Kansas and winning the final Bedlam game against Oklahoma. The ship seemed to have righted itself until they ran into UCF, losing by 42 points. Then beating Houston and BYU before getting blown out by Texas in the Big 12 championship game.
The Pokes are an anomaly. Rarely do they have a top recruiting class, but Gundy and his staff find ways to bring in diamonds in the rough and develop them. There is hope year in and year out that they can deliver at least a Big 12 championship, which they last won in 2011. Rebounding from a 7-6 season in 2022 to finish 10-3 gives Poke fans hope that in 2024, Oklahoma State can compete for the Big 12 championship again, and a playoff berth.
Oklahoma State’s offensive weaponry is all returning. Quarterback Alan Bowman received a 7th year of eligibility by the NCAA, running back and team rushing leader with over 1700 yards, Ollie Gordon II, and team top receiver Brennan Presley are all coming back for 2024. The Cowboys are looking to improve their 54th ranked offense from 2023.
The big question is what have the Pokes done to improve their 91st ranked defense from last season? The secondary was one of the worst in the country last year, finishing 126th, allowing 275 yards per game. While their rush defense was not much better, ranking 99th and giving up 167 yards a game. With even more explosive offenses coming into the league with the likes of Utah, Arizona, and Colorado, the Pokes may find themselves on the outside looking in once again if the defense cannot improve.
Oklahoma State heads into the 2024 season with the 52nd ranked recruiting class and the 53rd ranked portal class, bringing in six while losing eight.
2024 Outlook: Oklahoma State misses Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State, and UCF in 2024. Two of those teams beat the Pokes last season. They do get a non-conference home game against Arkansas at the start of the season, along with starting the 2024 season against 2-time FCS national champion South Dakota State in Stillwater. They open their Big 12 campaign against Utah at home and then head to Kansas State. Both programs have legitimate shots at winning the Big 12. Away games against BYU, Baylor, and Colorado to finish the season could shape the Pokes up nicely for a Big 12 championship game repeat. Texas Tech may be a sleeper, but the Red Raiders must go to Stillwater in late November.
Prediction: 8-4 (Losses to Utah, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Colorado). Not playoff-bound.
17. Tennessee Volunteers
2023 record: 9-4, 4-4 SEC. Beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl.
Losses: QB Joe Milton III, RB Jaylen Wright, DE Tyler Baron, LB Aaron Beasley, S Jaylen McCollough, CB Doneiko Slaughter, DB Tamarion McDonald, S Wesley Walker, WR Ramel Keyton.
My slightly biased thoughts: This ranking is way too low for me. After watching a freshman-led Volunteers team dismantle the 4th best defense in the nation in Iowa to the tune of over 200 yards on the ground — only one team had rushed for that many yards this season against the Hawkeyes, and that was Penn St. Iowa held national champion Michigan to just 66 yards on the ground in the Big Ten championship. While true freshman Nico Iamaleava did not light up the stat sheet with his arm, only throwing for 151 yards and 1 touchdown, he did have 3 rushing touchdowns with only 27 rush yards. Tennessee is a much better team than their record showed. The 2023 season could be viewed as a disappointment on Rocky Top, which had lofty expectations after the 2022 season and finally beating Alabama, but the Vols came back to earth this past season, losing to Florida, Alabama, Georgia, and Missouri. With Milton leaving for the NFL, Nico gives the fans in the Smoky Mountains something to look forward to in 2024. Nico will have some solid receivers returning in 1st team All-SEC name and Vols leading receiver Squirrel White coming back, followed by former Longhorn and USC Trojan Bru McCoy, who missed over half of the season due to an ankle injury, and the addition of Tulane’s 2023 leading pass catcher, Chris Brazzell. Nico should be well protected with center Cooper Mays and both tackles, John Campbell Jr. and Gerald Mincey, returning. On the negative side for Rocky Top is that they had 5 safeties and a corner enter the transfer portal, which does not help a defense that ranked 64th against the pass last season. This stat was helped by the fact they played Iowa in the bowl game. On the other side of it, Tennessee does bring in two corners and one safety from the transfer portal.
Tennessee enters the 2024 season with the 13th ranked recruiting class and 48th ranked portal class with eight transferring in and 11 out.
Season Review: The Vols open their season with a preseason game against UT Chattanooga and will face NC St in Charlotte. They get away with having only 4 away games, two being at Oklahoma and at Georgia. Of the seven true home games, they get Florida and Alabama back-to-back to start a four-straight home game streak. NC St could be an ACC championship contender, and that game could tell us a lot about how Tennessee will operate the rest of the season.
Prediction: 10-2 (losses to Georgia and NC St). Playoff-bound.
16. Florida State Seminoles
2023 record: 13-1, 8-0 ACC. ACC champion. Did not make the playoffs. Lost to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
Losses: QB Jordan Travis, RB Trey Benson, WR Keon Coleman, WR Johnny Wilson, TE Jaheim Bell, DE Jared Verse, LB DJ Lundy, S Akeem Dent, LB Kalen DeLoach.
My slightly biased thoughts: The most southern of the Alabama’s. Fitting and oddly timed sanctions by the NCAA placed on FSU for collective infractions — honestly, I didn’t know those existed — soon after Saban announces his retirement and Norvell becomes a target for Bama. I am not one for conspiracy theories, but one of my close friends is a massive Noles fan, so I got to hear about this one. I really do not care about what happened in the Orange Bowl against Georgia. FSU entered that game with no real starters on the roster, while at least Georgia had their day-one starting quarterback playing. How many of the 30-plus players who were hurt, entered the transfer portal, or opted out of the bowl game would have played if FSU wasn’t shafted by the committee and skipped over for the playoffs is an argument that can go on for a long time. The fact is, they did not make it and then got smoked by the Bulldogs for the program's worst defeat in a long time, if not ever.
I doubt Norvell, no matter how disappointed he may have been about the outcome, really took the loss to the point of massive depression. Instead, he hit the ground running by recruiting both high school and the transfer portal. From the sound of it, the Noles were finalists for both QB Cam Ward (Washington State), and QB DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson and Oregon State). With DJ deciding first, and forcing Cam to choose Miami, I hope he enjoys 45-minute bus rides to the stadium and half-empty seats, but I hear Miami’s NIL is pretty good for now.
Norvell and the Noles have picked up, so far, five Alabama transfer commits with the most recent being LB Shawn Murphy, hence the “The most southern of the Alabama’s”. Norvell is taking the Saban retirement and running by gobbling up as many Tide players as he can, like every other school in the nation; he has just had the most success so far. The defense is looking to reload the 2023 18th best defense and continue that dominance into the 2024 season. With DJ commanding the offense, FSU will still need to make up for the departures of RB Trey Benson, WRs Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson, and TE Jaheim Bell. Noles snagged two running backs and two receivers in the portal to try and continue production at these positions.
FSU enters 2024 with the 12th ranked recruiting class, and the 4th ranked portal class with 15 transfers coming in and 20 heading out.
Season review: FSU opens their 2024 campaign in Ireland against Georgia Tech. A couple of cupcakes (Memphis and Charleston Southern), which will probably be a couple of close wins because that is the Noles' way. Games at Notre Dame and Miami, and home games against Clemson, NC State, North Carolina, and Florida set the Noles up nicely. Notre Dame and Miami may be highly challenging; for Notre Dame, it is early enough in the season that the Noles do not have to worry about the cold weather in South Bend, but with the Irish being on their third quarterback in three years and the second straight transfer quarterback, it is hard to gauge how good the Irish are. Miami is still led by Mario, a great recruiter, but seems to just be an okay coach from his time at Oregon to now Miami. Florida State had to reload, and while bringing in a solid recruiting class, Norvell has not been shy to jump into the portal and snag what players he may need to keep Florida State at the top of the ACC for now.
Prediction: 10-2 (Losses at ND and Miami). Playoff-bound unless DJ gets hurt in the second to last game and they still win out but will be jumped by a 3-9 SEC team for the 11th spot.
